Sarah Palin Can Excite a Crowd, but Can She Win a Presidential Race?

Analysis by ABC News’ Amy Walter: The media scrum surrounding Sarah Palin -- or at least devoted to trying to figure out just where she’s going -- shows just what kind of impact she’d have on the race.

She can single-handedly suck up almost all the political oxygen in the atmosphere. That makes it hard for lesser-known, but more politically viable contenders like former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty to get attention. Moreover, it takes attention away from the topic Republican strategists would like to keep their party focused on: beating President Obama.

Even so, there’s considerable evidence that despite her ability to get media attention, she garners only a fraction of that interest from voters in her own party.

The most recent Gallup survey found that while she has almost universal name recognition among Republican voters, her approval rating is just 48 percent. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, the nominal frontrunner in this still-fluid primary, has a 56 percent approval rating.

Moreover, those who say they do like her don’t feel all that strongly about it. Instead, it’s two dark-horse candidates, former Godfather’s pizza CEO Herman Cain and Rep. Michele Bachmann, who “generate the strongest positive reactions” in the Gallup polling.

This also suggests that Palin may not be able to simply big-foot the less-well known Bachmann. This is especially relevant in a place like Iowa where the Caucus system rewards the candidate with the most committed followers. As Gallup writes, “the impact of candidates who have passionate followers is potentially most evident in primary elections, where, as was learned in 2010, turnout among highly motivated Republican voters can make a significant difference.”

Watch Palin speak to reporters after visiting the National Archives today:



Source: http://blogs.abcnews.com/thenote/2011/05/sarah-palin-can-excite-a-crowd-but-can-she-win-a-presidential-race.html